Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. Text files (six per figure) providing all the ensemble data used to construct each panel in the figure are also provided on the CBCCSP website. These data were compiled from naturalization studies prepared for the BPA (Crook, Citation1993), WDOE (Flightner, Citation2008), OWRD (Cooper, Citation2002), IDWR, and the USBR. Act relating to state agency climate leadership, S. 5560, 61st Legislature (WA 2009). In this section we provide an overview of the methods associated with the primary elements of the CBCCSP. The largest increases in flooding are in mixed-rain-and-snow basins whose current mid-winter temperatures are within a few degrees of freezing. #! O Ltude a produit une squence de traitements de donnes de bout en bout, la fine pointe, partant d'une sortie brute de modle climatique pour aboutir une srie de produits de modlisation hydrologique, qui sont offerts la communaut d'utilisateurs via une base de donnes Web. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Gridded databases providing full GIS coverage of important hydrometeorological variables in support of a wide range of research applications, including ecosystem research. For example, researchers who wish to run their own hydrologic models can do so by downloading the statistically downscaled meteorological forcings from the study. About 15 sites in western Washington, outside the CRB, were also included in support of the 2009 WACCIA. Registered in England & Wales No. 135 0 obj <>stream REVEL=Columbia River at Revelstoke Dam, CORRA=Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam, WANET=Pend Oreille River at Waneta Dam, LIBBY=Kootenai (Kootenay) River at Libby Dam, DWORS=N. Fork Clearwater River at Dworshak Dam, MILNE=Snake River at Milner, ICEHA=Snake River at Ice Harbor Dam, PRIRA=Columbia River at Priest Rapids Dam, YAPAR=Yakima River at Parker, DALLE=Columbia River at The Dalles, OR, WILFA=Willamette River above falls at Oregon City. Wind speed data are based on interpolated NCEP reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., Citation1996) using methods described by Elsner et al. The study was also unique in that this was the first time that these agencies had run their own reservoir operation models to assess climate change impacts in the CRB, an element of the study design which greatly increased the impact of the study conclusions in the agencies involved. The magnitude of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10 are expected to shift markedly in some basins in response to cool season warming, increasing cool season precipitation, and warmer, drier summers. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The WDOE was also directed to incorporate climate change explicitly in these comprehensive assessment efforts. Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. In most basins with substantial snowpack, elevated soil moisture in winter accompanies warming in the simulations resulting from more infiltration from rain in the fall and winter months (Fig. The largest reductions in low flows occur west of the Cascade Range in the simulations. To request a reprint or corporate permissions for this article, please click on the relevant link below: Please note: Selecting permissions does not provide access to the full text of the article, please see our help page How do I view content? Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Oregon Water Resources Department. Other impacts, such as changes in soil moisture dynamics are also apparent in the simulations. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). O weather.com oferece para voc a previso do tempo mais precisa para Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso com mdias/recordes e temperaturas mximas/mnimas, precipitaes e muito mais. The scope of work for the project called for hydrologic modellers at CIG to produce the following results: A suite of up-to-date hydrologic projections for the entire CRB (including portions of the basin in Canada) based on the CMIP3/AR4 (Meehl et al., Citation2007) GCM projections. The CBCCSP had a budget of about US$500 thousand (in 2010 dollars) over two years. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. The highest value of baseflow is Ds max (in millimetres of runoff per time step) for a saturated soil layer; Ws represents the soil moisture threshold below which the baseflow curve is linear; and Ds is the baseflow value (in millimetres) at this breakpoint. Climatic Change 113:499-524. 2), for which overall errors in meteorological driving data were assumed to be relatively small; then, using these model parameters, to check the results in smaller sub-catchments. Here we will review a few important aspects of the basic implementation to help orient the reader and will then focus most of our attention on the additional implementation and calibration tasks carried out during the CBCCSP. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. In addition, some observed streamflow data are suitable for use as natural data if the effects of storage and diversions are relatively small (e.g., for the USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network streamflow sites). These data are summarized in figures and tables prepared for each streamflow site discussed in Section 4. Broad changes in shallow groundwater (e.g., localized contributions to streamflow from smaller unconfined aquifers), however, are likely well captured by the VIC model based on a strong correlation between VIC-simulated base flows and observations in many basins examined by Wenger et al. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable public resource that has dramatically reduced costs in a number of high-visibility studies in the PNW and western United States focused on technical coordination and planning. Produced by, Clean Energy and Green Building Major Projects, Private and public sector clean energy and green building construction projects valued at $15M or more for the 3rd quarter of each year. The CBCCSP provided climate change projections of meteorological drivers and a calibrated VIC implementation in support of the study. 3. The first nine months of the dataset were used for hydrologic model spin-up, resulting in 91 water years (OctoberSeptember) of usable historical data from the hydrologic model simulations. The MRB encompasses 24 terrestrial ecosystems, providing habitat for 100 species of mammals, reptiles, and amphibians Its floodplain supports 40% of the waterfowl and wading birds in North America, and the MRB's . Both calibration and validation periods were chosen to test model performance over a wide range of climate and streamflow conditions. For example, to support academic or agency researchers with their own hydrologic modelling capability, the study provides projections of meteorological drivers such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and humidity and a calibrated VIC hydrologic model implementation. To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy. Southwest wind 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Blue dots represent the historical values; the red dots show the range of values from the HD ensemble (10 or 9 values); black dashes show the mean of the HD ensemble, and the orange dots show the single value calculated for the CD projections. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because . Columbia Basin Care is the region's only independent nonprofit skilled nursing facility for long-term care and short-term rehabilitation. Special thanks to Kurt Unger and Ken Slattery, who were the primary architects of the CBCCSP at WDOE. (2005). It is important to acknowledge that opinions differ on the utility or even possibility of improving ensembles of future projections based on the ability to simulate the past climate (e.g., Gleckler, Taylor, & Doutriaux, Citation2008). Three statistical downscaling approaches were selected or developed for the study: Composite Delta (CD): regional average projections compiled from 10 GCMs (Elsner et al., Citation2010), Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD): (Salath, Citation2005; Salath, Mote, & Wiley, Citation2007; Wood, Leung, Sridhar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Wood, Maurer, Kumar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002), Hybrid Delta (HD): (Hamlet et al., 2010a). For climate change studies in the western United States where snow is an important element of the hydrologic cycle, the model's use of a sophisticated energy-balance snow model, which incorporates important effects on snow accumulation and melt associated with vegetation canopy (Andreadis, Storck, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009) has been a notable advantage. Thus, stakeholders can select different products, using different downscaling approaches that are appropriate to their needs. Daily and monthly average streamflow for all projections listed in Table 1 and, where possible, daily and monthly bias-corrected streamflow values. Because both these effects increase flood risk in the simulations, the effects are unusually large in these basins (Fig. Detailed forecast for Upper Columbia Basin Tonight Mostly clear. unpublished manuscript). NWPCC (Northwest Power and Conservation Council). Fig. It drains roughly 260,000 square miles and travels more than 1,240 miles from its headwaters in the Rocky Mountains to its confluence with the Pacific Ocean. Because of space limitations, we will not be able to cover these alternative modelling efforts in this paper. Hamlet, and S.-Y. Hydrologic climate change scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin and coastal drainages. As mentioned in the introduction, WA HB2860, which provided the bulk of the funding for the CBCCSP, also charged WDOE with identifying where US$200 million earmarked for water resources infrastructure improvements should be spent. Each product is provided as a gridded file (one file for each variable and calendar month) in ASCII format. (Citation2010) interpolated existing 1/8 degree model parameters to 1/16 degree and also included previously calibrated soil parameters for the Yakima sub-basin (please see acknowledgements). Fig. Contract # DE-AC79-92BP21985. In 2008, many of the financial and institutional barriers to climate change assessment and adaptation that had been erected over the preceding eight years by the Bush Administration were substantially reduced by the incoming Obama Administration. Blue lines show average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of other members of the CBCCSP research team at the UW including Lara Whitely Binder, Pablo Carrasco, Jeffrey Deems, Carrie Lee, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Tyler Kamstra, Jeremy Littell, Nathan Mantua, Edward Miles, Kristian Mickelson, Philip W. Mote, Erin Rogers, Eric Salath, Amy Snover, and Andrew Wood. Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S.-Y., Mantua, N. J., Salath, E. P. Jr, Steed, R., & Tohver, I. Hamlet, A. F., Carrasco, P., Deems, J., Elsner, M. M., Kamstra, T., Lee, C., Lee, S-Y, Mauger, G., Salathe, E. P., Tohver, I., & Binder, L. W. (2010a). In the remainder of this paper, we present an overview of the development of the CBCCSP, a description of the primary methods used to produce the study databases, an overview of the products and information the study databases provide, and some high-visibility examples of the use of these products and services in regional planning. The bias-corrected monthly values are then used to rescale the simulated daily flow sequences produced by the hydrologic model to produce bias-corrected daily streamflows. These results support the hypothesis that widespread increases in winter landslide risks and sediment transport in rivers are likely to accompany increased winter precipitation and loss of interannual snowpack in mountain watersheds. 10 Left panel: Changes in Q100 for 297 streamflow locations expressed as a ratio of Q100 for the future period to Q100 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Key products from the study include summary data for about 300 river locations in the PNW and monthly Geographic Information System products for 21 hydrologic variables over the entire study domain. 2010. The VIC model (version 4.0.7) was implemented at 1/16 degree resolution, with three active soil layers and up to five elevation bands with an approximate spacing of 500m. The model was run in water balance mode with a snow model time step of 1h and a water balance time step of 24h. The model was coupled to a simple daily-time-step routing model (Lohmann, Raschke, Nijssen, & Lettenmaier, Citation1998), which was used to produce daily flow estimates at each of the approximately 300 streamflow locations included in the study. 5 Howick Place | London | SW1P 1WG. Open File Report SW 02-002. Basin topographic map and smoothed basin boundary at 1/16 degree resolution. Calibration of the VIC model was carried out using an automated calibration tool called MOCOM-UA developed by the Land Surface Hydrology group at the UW, following the approach described by Yapo, Gupta, and Sorooshian (Citation1998). Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). In the first five years (19952000) of operation, the research efforts of CIG were primarily directed towards the assessment of the impacts of interannual and interdecadal climate variability associated with ENSO (Battisti & Sarachik, Citation1995; Trenberth, Citation1997) and the PDO (Gershunov & Barnett, Citation1998; Mantua, Hare, Zhang, Wallace, & Francis, Citation1997). Although not as extreme as A1FI, the high-end A2 scenario was archived by most GCMs and could have been used in the CBCCSP in place of the A1B scenario. A comprehensive website was to be developed to serve all the data produced by the study, at no cost, to the general public, management professionals agency staff members, scientific researchers, private sector consultants, etc. Simulations of floods and extreme low flows increase in intensity for most of the river sites included in the study. Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). Using these resources, other modelling groups can carry out their own investigations of hydrologic impacts using either their own hydrologic model (just using the driving data) or the VIC implementation from the CBCCSP. Lows in the lower 50s. YAKIMA Lower Columbia returned to the diamond on Friday with a double-header split against Yakima Valley. Each of these methods has its specific advantages and limitations (as discussed in detail in Hamlet et al., 2010a); however, the HD method combines several important strengths of the CD and BCSD methods and was developed specifically to support the prediction of daily hydrologic extremes (Hamlet et al., 2010a). hL4+ze Primary support for the project was provided by WDOE, with additional major support provided by the BPA, NWPCC, BCME, OWRD, and CTED via the 2009 WACCIA (http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml) (Miles et al., Citation2010). The RMJOC is specifically dedicated to reviewing the practices, procedures, and processes of each agency to identify changes that could improve the overall efficiency of the operation and management of the Federal Columbia River Power System projects. The HD method was also selected as the basis for the main summary products derived for each river location (see description below), primarily because it was capable of providing good performance over the complete range of products produced by the CBCCSP (Hamlet et al., 2010a). The DOI via the USFWS has recently established a set of LCCs across the United States (USFWS, Citation2013) and has generated additional funding to support a group of regional CSCs, one of which was recently established in the PNW (PNWCSC), combining the efforts of about 15 PNW research universities, jointly led by the USGS, Oregon State University, the UW, and the University of Idaho. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. The CBCCSP was designed from the outset to support users with a very wide range of technical sophistication and capacity. Contact Carri Hessman Program Manager (208) 378-5106 chessman@usbr.gov Bureau of Reclamation Figure 4 shows a flow chart of these post-processing steps. The regional report for the National Assessment was supported by two detailed water management studies focused on the CRB by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation1999b) and Miles, Snover, Hamlet, Callahan and Fluharty (Citation2000). The CBCCSP was founded on the basis of regional partnerships to support a shared need for climate change scenarios and directly encompassed the transboundary nature of the CRB's management framework by including both US and Canadian interests in an integrated and comprehensive data resource. A family of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used in the IPCC effort (Nakienovi et al. Reductions in spring snowpack and summer streamflow, for example, are relatively modest in the Canadian portions of the basin because of cold winter temperatures that delay warming-related impacts to seasonal snowpack (Elsner et al., Citation2010). 6. As noted above, such errors are commonly encountered at relatively small spatial scales, particularly when meteorological stations are sparse, and often cannot be resolved using conventional hydrologic model calibration strategies. In 2021, these livestock operations alone accounted for 75% of deforestation on public lands, according to a study by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM).. Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. Naturalized flow products from specific sites were also used to provide naturalized inflows at model nodes needed to run the USBR MODSIM (Labadie, Citation2007) reservoir model for the Snake River basin. A subsequent study in the Skagit River basin (Lee and Hamlet, unpublished manuscript) has demonstrated that substantial improvements in the simulation of high flow extremes can be achieved by calibrating the routing model, but it is not yet clear whether these conclusions can be generalized to other areas of the domain. 7). 8 Monthly mean hydrographs not adjusted for bias (water year: OctoberSeptember) for four representative river sites in the PNW: Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam (upper left), Columbia River at The Dalles, Oregon (upper right), Yakima River at Parker (lower left), and the Chehalis River at Grand Mound (lower right). The PET increases over most of the PNW in summer as a result of rising temperatures; however, AET is reduced in all but a few areas of the domain because AET is water limited and summer precipitation decreases in the simulations. To explore how much the model simulations might be improved by additional fine-scale calibration, we also recalibrated three additional smaller sites within the Pend Oreille River basin. 11 Changes in 7Q10 for 297 river locations expressed as a ratio of 7Q10 for the future period to 7Q10 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods, by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. Explore the basics of climate science arrow . The primary activities and objectives of the RMJOC studies are described in the Executive Summary of the project report (US Department of the Interior, Citation2012): The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) collaborated to adopt climate change and hydrology datasets for their longer-term planning activities in the ColumbiaSnake River Basin (CSRB). Additional products such as bias-adjusted inflow sequences for specific reservoir operations models are also included. The Water Hub contains numerical and spatial data, reports, photos and other types of information about streams, lakes, wetlands, groundwater, snow, glaciers and climate in the Columbia Basin both historical and current. In 2006, The Act relating to Water Resource Management in the Columbia River Basin [hereinafter HB2860] (2006) directed the WDOE to study water resources systems in Washington and identify specific projects in which to invest up to US$200 million provided by the bill to improve water resources infrastructure or management systems. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable resource which has dramatically reduced the cost of a number of high-visibility planning studies in the PNW, including the RMJOC water resources planning studies conducted by the BPA, USBR, and USACE, WSU integrated crop modelling and irrigation water demand studies under HB2860, the WA Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy, and west-wide extensions of the CBCCSP supported by the USFS and USFWS. The USFS and USFWS studies have supported a number of high-visibility ecosystem studies, including assessment of the impacts of changing snowpack on wolverine populations (McKelvey et al., Citation2011) and subsequent proposed ESA listing of wolverine populations, and comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts to trout species over the west (Wenger et al., Citation2011). West-wide studies to support USFS and USFWS needs (including current efforts to include California) will have a budget of less than half this amount, a level of efficiency that would not have been achievable without the CBCCSP pilot effort. 9 Left panel: Historical estimates of summer (JJA) potential evapotranspiration (PET) (based on PET3, see Table 2) (upper right) compared with percentage changes in PET for two emissions scenarios and three future time periods from the CD scenarios. These approaches were further developed and refined during the WACCIA in 2009 (Miles, Elsner, Littell, Binder, & Lettenmaier, Citation2010), which included assessments of aquatic and forest ecosystem impacts (Littell et al., Citation2010; Mantua, Tohver, & Hamlet, Citation2010). The Hot and the Cold of It Summer comes on strong. To produce the bias-adjusted flows, a bias correction procedure using quantile mapping techniques is applied (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Snover et al., Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP) was conceived as a comprehensive hydrologic database to support climate change planning, impacts assessment, and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) by a diverse user community with varying technical capacity over a wide range of spatial scales. It was also well understood by practitioners at CIG that aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem researchers, managers, and stakeholders needed a similar, but more comprehensive, data resource to support long-term planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies at the landscape scale. Table 1 summarizes the 77 future meteorological forcing datasets that were prepared for the study. Naturalized streamflow data were used exclusively in the CBCCSP to calibrate the hydrologic model. One of the major climate change impacts already being seen in the Columbia Basin has been the decreases in winter snowpack, the increase in winter precipitation events, and the resulting shifts in flow regime in the Columbia River and its tributaries. Les rsultats de ltude montrent de profonds changements dans l'accumulation de neige au printemps et des dplacements radicaux de neige ou pluie et neige mles vers principalement pluie dans presque tout le domaine. endstream endobj startxref Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin, Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling.